First Autumn storm system of 2024 set to pound Rocky Mountains with rain, snow

It touched 82 degrees in Denver on Wednesday, October 16th. For nearly four full weeks, the bulk of Colorado has faced a high pressure system that has ushered in unseasonably warm days, miniscule humidity, and a distinct lack of cloud cover at night that, when present, usually helps keep what moisture still exists on the ground from evaporating so quickly.

It’s been a recipe for bone dry conditions, as evidenced by both by the raging wildfires to the north in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho and the growing movement to Stage 1 fire restrictions across northern Colorado as conditions down here catch up with the more arid ones in those states.

As Buckrail.com meteorologist Alan Smith noted yesterday, the Jackson Hole area has sustained a 27 day stretch without precipitation of any kind, the longest dry spell of any kind in the last 15 years. He goes on to note that average high temperatures in this October have been some 12.2 degrees warmer than average, with daily high temperatures topping 70 degrees in all but two days so far this month.

Mercifully, Thursday the 17th of October began to usher in more typical Autumn conditions across the Rockies, with a weather system that’s set to soak the entire Mountain West with some much needed water. The Tetons, per Smith’s forecast, could see up to 6 inches of snow above 8,000 feet, while the storm system will dump up potentially up to 40 inches on select mountain faces above 9,000 feet further south in Silverton, Colorado, per The Weather Channel.

While that last forecast is for Silverton in particular, it’s worth pointing out that both the Continental Divide Trail (CDT) and Colorado Trail pass within a handful of miles of the town of Silverton itself, passing near Stony Pass after skirting 14ers Redcloud Peak (14,037 feet), Sunshine Peak (14,004 feet), and Handies Peak (14,058 feet) to the south. Considering the relatively warm temperatures the entirety of the Colorado Trail’s 486 miles have experienced in recent weeks, it wouldn’t shock me in the least that there are a good number of hikers on that section near its end in nearby Durango who’ll be forced to deal with this storm first-hand.

It should probably go without saying that the non-winter climbing season of the dozens of 14ers in the San Juan Mountains will effectively be over after this storm. I’d wager the Chicago Basin group of Windom, Eolus, North Eolus, and Sunlight north to the Wilson Peak/Mount Wilson group will all have ample snow by weekend’s end, as will Wetterhorn Peak and Uncompaghre, too.

Each of Billings, Montana and Denver itself are expected to get drenched with up to a half-inch of rain in this system, while the Absaroka-Beartooth Mountains on the northern boundary of Yellowstone National Park could see up to 15 inches of snow, per Newsweek.

Per KJZZ14, the Salt Lake City area will also be getting hammered by this system, with the mountains surrounding Great Salt Lake expected to receive up to 16 inches of snow before all is said and done on Saturday.

The precipitation will undoubtedly be a boon to firefighting efforts across the region, though the rise in the relative humidity that comes with the system’s push to the northeast may serve as a longer-lasting impact than the rain/snow itself. Per the National Interagency Fire Center, some 1.148 million acres are currently burning as of today, with some 7.86 million acres having burned already this year – a huge jump from the 2.54 million that burned in all of calendar year 2023.

Over 507,000 acres are currently burning in Idaho spread across 13 different active fires. The Elk Fire and Fish Creek Fire in Wyoming, respectively, are each roughly 90,000 acres in size. Oregon has over 234,000 acres ablaze at the moment as well. Hopefully, this system begins the end of fire season in these regions, with the taxing nature of the work done by hotshot firefighters paired with the longer-than-normal dry spell having made 2024 one for the books.