Southern Rocky Mountains poised for early fire season amid April drought

The good news is that the northern Rocky Mountains appear to be sporting collective snow-water equivalent percentages that are just about right given the median range measured over the last 30 years. That’s an area that includes some of Glacier National Park in Montana, Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park, and Yellowstone National Park (which spans the borders of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho).

The above map from the National Water and Climate Center shows that while none of those particular regions are sporting well above average marks, they’re all within a reasonable earshot of 100% of median right now, a good sign that they’ll enter the summer in decent-enough shape to weather potential drought and fire seasons.

The lone dry exceptions in that northern portion are found in the Marias district of north-central Montana and the area along the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming corner southwest of the Gallatin Range and due west of the Teton Range itself. Both find themselves in the ‘yellow’ range on the above map, meaning each ranges from 70 to 89% of previous median.

The Marias area of Montana includes much of the eastern portion of Glacier National Park, including the Many Glacier area, Lake Sherburne, the Lewis Range, St. Mary Lake, and a good portion of the Continental Divide Trail’s route through the park. That means the famed Highline Trail and the route north to Waterton Lake (and Canada’s Waterton Lakes National Park) currently resides in an area where the ground is only 75% as wet as it usually is this time of year.

That’s not to sound an immediate alarm, or anything; however, if you’re planning on doing many late-summer routes in the area, it’s something to monitor as the summer droughts inevitably emerge and fire season begins across the American west. Barring some late-spring snowstorms to up the snowpack (or a rainier than expected May), it looks as if that area – as well as the western border of Yellowstone that features the Madison Plateau and much of the Cascade Corner – may be prone to fire restrictions (and fire warnings) earlier than anticipated.

While those areas are concerning, it’s the southern Rockies where things are already looking relatively parched.

The Four Corners region immediately southwest of Cortez, Colorado in particular is dry, currently showing 0% of the 30-year median amount of snow-water equivalent in the soil at this time. That Lower San Juan district includes areas such as Canyon of the Ancients National Monument, Utah’s famed Monument Valley, and the western watershed of the Chuska Mountains. That area is already looking at early season fire conditions, let along fire conditions once the summer heat rolls in and dries things out further.

Things don’t get too much rosier to the east, either. The West Elk Range and West Elk Wilderness near Gunnison, Colorado sit at an alarming 49% as of the end of April 26th, and that area includes Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park, as well. Further southeast, the western watershed of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains are facing potentially dire conditions, with the Rio Grande Headwaters and San Luis Valley sitting at just 29% while the Upper Rio Grande to the south is at just 17%.

The La Garita Mountains and Wilderness, therefore, will likely be much drier, much earlier than usual this year. The same can be said for the would-be Medano Creek in Great Sand Dunes NP in the southwest corner of the Sangres, as well as the Weminuche Wilderness – itself the largest wilderness in Colorado and the prize of the San Juan Mountains.

This isn’t a fiery sentence just yet, but it’s certainly concerning. There’s the predictable chance that the typical monsoon storms roll in from the southwest in late June and help alleviate much of this, while there’s also fortunately a good bit of snow/rain in the forecast for much of Colorado in the coming week. However, if you’re plotting big trips in the southern Rockies this summer, it’s making out to be a year where watching fire conditions develop (as well as water dependability conditions in areas where streams don’t run year-round) is going to be paramount to planning any trip.

Fingers crossed for a snowy May surprise!